Hand: Turning QQ into bluff

Hand
Stars Hand #128447486300 begins at 2015/01/11  6:07 am
Seat 1 (A.Cretu) is the dealer
trinity2222 posts the small blind 0.10
DianaSvensk posts the big blind 0.25
eng_felix folds
wootdude raises to 0.50
Rabiator folds
A.Cretu folds
trinity2222 folds
DianaSvensk calls 0.25
Flop: [Kc 4c 7c]
DianaSvensk checks
wootdude bets 0.78
DianaSvensk calls 0.78
Turn: [Ad]
DianaSvensk checks
wootdude bets 1.90
DianaSvensk calls 1.90
River: [6d]
DianaSvensk checks
wootdude bets 3.09

[F] 
To this size, we need to defend 59% of our range + (65%) or 156x0,65 = 101 combos.
Calls V: AK (12), QK (12), 44 (3), 77 (3), 88-QQ (30), KTc (3), KJs (3) = 66
89CC, 9Tcc, TJcc, QTcc, QJcc, ATcc, AJcc, AQcc,  = 8
Draws: AcQx (4), AxQc (4), AcJx (4), AxJc (4) = 16

Tot 90 combos.

Since this is a K high board, I think we should skip raising this flop. Our range is very tight and we'd just use up most of the top of our range hands.
As you can see, we will be overfolding this flop slightly, but I think that's ok bcs calling more hands than the ones mentioned above would just be unprofitable imo.

[T] 
- 3 AJ, - 3 AK, - 3 AQ = 81 combos. To this sizing we want to be defending min 58% (65%) of our range if we can = 53 combos. .

We won't have many bluffs in our range on this turn. A lot of our flop floats made top pair now, therefor I prefer if we do not raise this turn at all for value or bluffs. If the turn was an offsuit deuce on the other hand I prefer to raise the smaller flushes and use some Ax floats to jam as bluff. Now we are delaying the bluff to the river.

Calls: AcQx (3), AxQc (3), AcJx (3), AxJc (3) = 12
AK (9), 44 (3), 77 (3) = 15
89CC, 9Tcc, TJcc, QTcc, QJcc, ATcc, AJcc, AQcc,  = 8
KxQc (3), QcQx (3), JcJx (3) = 9

Combos defended: 44

Again, our defense frequency is fairly low but I don't think we should or can defend more combos than this rofitably ott.

[R] 
To this size we need to defend 68% of our range or 44x0,68 = 30 combos.

Vs a half pot size bet I think we can raise all our Q-high flushes or better for value.

River V XRAI:  QTcc, QJcc, ATcc, AJcc, AQcc,  = 5
River B XRAI: AcQx (2)
Calls: 89CC, 9Tcc, TJcc (3) AK (9), 44 (3), 77 (3) = 18

Again, we are not defending quite enough but I think it's better to do exploitable folds here. I don't think calling 1 pair hands on this river will be profitABLE. Instead I put AcQx as bluff since it is the top of our folding range and it blocks AA and AK and flushes. Playing our range like this, if we're bluffing QQ we're bluffing  too much. Even if we add some 1 pair hands to our river calling range, we'll still have AcX hands that play better as bluffs. QcQx therefor should have been a fold on this river!

Hands defended on the river: 24

AcQx (3), AxQc (3), AcJx (3), AxJc (3),