lördag 20 december 2014

Cbet strat in 3bet pots OOP

Hello!

Today, again, I'll be looking at a spot that seam trivial, but one of the first biggest mistakes I made early on in my poker career was to cbet and barell off too much, so I worked quite a bit on recognizing spot like these - even, like said, they might seam trivial to you :)

Hand

PokerStars Zoom Hand #124924346183:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50)

Table 'Baade' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: YouRMyFr1end ($59.64 in chips)
Seat 2: DianaSvensk ($111.86 in chips)
Seat 3: tomekpe ($72.44 in chips)
Seat 4: PokerJed55 ($50 in chips)
Seat 5: bodgik77 ($58.85 in chips)
Seat 6: zenzorita20 ($49.11 in chips)
DianaSvensk: posts small blind $0.25
tomekpe: posts big blind $0.50

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DianaSvensk [7c Ac]
PokerJed55: folds
bodgik77: folds
zenzorita20: folds
YouRMyFr1end: raises $0.50 to $1
DianaSvensk: raises $2.50 to $3.50
tomekpe: folds
YouRMyFr1end: calls $2.50

*** FLOP *** [Ks 9h 4s]
DianaSvensk: bets $4.29
YouRMyFr1end: calls $4.29

*** TURN *** [Ks 9h 4s] [Jc]
DianaSvensk: checks
YouRMyFr1end: checks

*** RIVER *** [Ks 9h 4s Jc] [Jh]
DianaSvensk: bets $15.50
YouRMyFr1end: folds
Uncalled bet ($15.50) returned to DianaSvensk
DianaSvensk collected $15.36 from pot
DianaSvensk: doesn't show hand

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $16.08 | Rake $0.72
Board [Ks 9h 4s Jc Jh]
Seat 1: YouRMyFr1end (button) folded on the River
Seat 2: DianaSvensk (small blind) collected ($15.36)
Seat 3: tomekpe (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: PokerJed55 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: bodgik77 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: zenzorita20 folded before Flop (didn't bet)


Analysis

[P]

55+,33,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,ATo+,KJo+ = 19,56% of hands = 260 combos. 3bet hole range from SB.

[F]

Cbet value:
AA (3, w/o As), 99 (3), K9s (2), AK (8) = 17
KQ (12), KJ (12), KTs (3), K8s (3), 98s (3), 9Ts (3), J9s (3), Q9s (3) = 42
TT-JJ (12) = 12

63 v bets

Bluffs:
Straight draws: JTs (4), QTs (4), Qjs (4) = 12
Flush draws: A2ss-A3ss, A5ss-A8ss = 6, 65ss, 67ss, 87ss, T8ss, J8ss, Q8ss = 6 = 12
Backdoor fds: A2hh-A3ss, A5ss-A8ss = 6, 65ss, 67ss, 87ss, T8ss, J8ss, Q8hh = 12
AsQx (4), AxQs (4), AsJx (4), AxJs (4), AsTx (4), AxTs (4) = 24

60 bluffs

I do think we should have more bluffs here, but it's hard to choose which ones. I'd probably choose hands that have good barell opportunities though like backdoor straight draws so lets start by adding those.

AQ (10), AJ (10), AT (10) = 30

Just adding the other offsuit combos of Ax we now have another 30 bluffs, which looks more reasonable to me.

90 bluffs

Result: this particular combo (A7cc) has no barell opportunities ott and it's very low down in our range and should have been check-been folded otf. 

It's ok to give up sometimes. We are still coninuing w/ 75% of our rang which is plenty!

c/c strong: KK, AA w/ the As, AK w/ the As (4), QQ (6) = 16
AQss, AJss, ATsss = 3
AQhh, AJhh, AThh = 3
Value 1 street: 55-88 (24) = 24

46 combos defended when checked the flop.

[T]

- 4 combos of AJ, - 4 combos of AJ, - 4 combos of AK, - 1 combo of KTs, - 4 combos of KJ, - 3 combos of JJ

= 130 combos that bet the flop now ott

On the J turn, we v bet:

KJ (9), K9s (2), QTs (4), JJ (3), J9s (2) = 20
AK (8), KQ (12) = 20

40 value bets

Bluffs:

Flush draws: A2ss-A3ss, A5ss-A8ss = 6, 65ss, 67ss, 87ss, T8ss, J8ss, Q8ss = 6 = 12
Straight draws: AQ = 12, AT = 12
T8hh, Q8hh = 2
98s (3), 9Ts (3) = 6
TT = 6
Q9s (3) = 3

41 bluffs.

Since a lot of hands got devalued ott, I like taking the TT and 9x and turning them into a bluff now. They have good blockers and are just in between my range. 

c/c:
AJ (12), JTs (3), QJs (3), KTs (3), K8s (3) = 24

Give ups:
25 combos

This board becomes so dynamic, villain will often have a pair+ straightdraw type hands, I prefer to bet most stronghands atm.

Also, a lot of our weaker value b otf now becomes very weak (9x). Hard to tell what we are supposed to do w/ them though. There are still many other hands that won't to c/c so maybe c/f is the best options for those. 

[R] 

- 3 AJ, - 1 JTs, - 1 QJs, = 21 v combos left + 25 give ups.
56 combos that we get to the river w/ this way.

This river is actually very good for our T checking range, and I think villain would likely bet the turn if he had Jx beat (though he also has some Jx in his range). 

C/c: KTs (3),  JTs (3), K8s = 12 combos. I like c/c these bcs they have good blockers.

V bets: AJ (9) ,QJs (3) = 14 combos v bet.

As for bluffs, I have the choice between hand w / weak showdown value or blockers. I prefer not to have spades in my hand though, and even if I dont expect to win much w/ TT I think I should rather try to show it down, even though it's close. 

Bluffs: AQ no spades (4), At no spades (4) = 8 bluffs.

I do like to bet bigger (pot) here bcs Jx is essentially gonna be the nuts here and we have quite a few of those.

To summarize: I don't think A7cc should have been cbet, but as played I think the bigger bet size otr is fine-ish but again we should be choosing better hands to bluff.


Best,
D

fredag 19 december 2014

# 1 Hand Analysis

Hello,

This will be the first of my daily hand analysis.

Before I start posting hands, I'd like to say this. Sometimes I feel like people think I actually know what I'm talking about, just because I present things in a way so  that it sounds like I know what I'm talking about.

This is not the truth. However, what is the truth; generally when  I post a hand, I have thought it trough and will take all the knowledge and experience I have - theory, calculations, player, player pool etc and make the analyse through this very personal filter. It will sound like I know what I'm talking about because I made sense of the hand to the best of my ability. I have valued different strategic options and put them in a system inside. But that doesn't mean I don't value other peoples filters just as high (or probably higher, since it gives me a perspective I couldn't give myself) and therefore I welcome and embrace all input and comments you'd like to share with me.

Now, these daily analysis are mainly to keep myself disciplined about crucial studying, but if sometime in the future people find this blog, now you know - I think it would be super awesome if you scribbled down your thoughts on the hands I post in my comment field.

Also, I won't be focusing much on really sick hands, but more on the situations that occur frequently, since I think those are the most important.

Here we go, hand #1: 

PokerStars Zoom Hand #125049559656:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50)

Table 'Baade' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: GoldenShover ($66.41 in chips)
Seat 2: DianaSvensk ($96.81 in chips)
Seat 3: MrLawyer90 ($103.12 in chips)
Seat 4: chaosevo7 ($42.31 in chips)
Seat 5: Guldmor ($20.68 in chips)
Seat 6: Kraxen ($50 in chips)
DianaSvensk: posts small blind $0.25
MrLawyer90: posts big blind $0.50

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DianaSvensk [Th Ah]
chaosevo7: folds
Guldmor: folds
Kraxen: raises $0.75 to $1.25
GoldenShover: folds
DianaSvensk: raises $3.25 to $4.50
MrLawyer90: folds
Kraxen: calls $3.25

*** FLOP *** [7h Qc Ac]
DianaSvensk: bets $5.44
Kraxen: calls $5.44

*** TURN *** [7h Qc Ac] [6s]
DianaSvensk: checks
Kraxen: bets $10.75
DianaSvensk: calls $10.75

*** RIVER *** [7h Qc Ac 6s] [9c]
DianaSvensk: checks
Kraxen: bets $29.31 and is all-in
DianaSvensk: folds
Uncalled bet ($29.31) returned to Kraxen
Kraxen collected $40 from pot
Kraxen: doesn't show hand

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $41.88 | Rake $1.88
Board [7h Qc Ac 6s 9c]
Seat 1: GoldenShover (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: DianaSvensk (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 3: MrLawyer90 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: chaosevo7 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Guldmor folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Kraxen collected ($40)

Analysis

[P] 

55+,33,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,AJo+,KJo+ = 18,85% = 250 combos

I am playing 3bet-or-fold from the SB vs BU and CO. This is aprox range I play vs lp open. 

[F] 

Cbet V: 77 (3), QQ (3), AQ (9), A7s (9), AK (12), AJ (12), AT (12) = 60 combos for value
Cbet bluff:
Fds: 65cc - 9T (3), J8, T8, 97 (3) = 6
Bdfd: 65cc - 9T (3), J8, T8, 97 (3) = 6, K8dd,K9dd = 2, = 8
Straightdraws: KJ (16), JTs (4), KTs (4) = 24
Pairs: 76s (3), 78s (3), TT (6), JJ (6), Q9s (3), Q8s (3),  = 24

62 combos bet as bluffs.

As you can see, I've put hands like TT-JJ and Q8s-Q9s in the bluff categories. These are not really bluffs, more like 1-street value hands that need protection. You could check/call 1 street, but I think the EV of betting is higher. These hands will also turn into pretty good bluffs on later streets when they pick up a draw and has good blocker effects. 

C/c: AA (3), K8cc-KJcc (4), KQ (12), QTs (3), QJs (3), KK (6) = 47 combos,
A2s-A6s (15), A8s-A9s (6) = 21 combos

67 combos checked and called.

[T] 

I think there are better hands from our range to choose than ATs to c/c ott. Since this is a better board for my range, I prefer to bet wide for value and bluffs and then c/decide what to do on various rivers. It keeps our range uncapped and we have more options 5th street. So I think I should have bet here with this specific hand.


Got 120 combos of hands here.

V:
77 (3), QQ (3), AQ (9), A7s (9), AK (12), AJ (12), AT (12), 67s (2)

62 combos for value

Bluffs:
Fds: 65cc - 9T (3), J8, T8, 97 (3) = 6
Straightdraws: KJ (15), JTs (4), KTs (4) = 24, 89dd, 9Tdd = 25
Pairs: 97dd (1), 78s (3), Q8-Q9s (6) = 10

42 combos bet as bluffs.

[R] 

102 combos otr.

Value shove: 65cc - 9T (3), J8, T8, 97 (3), JTcc = 7, 8Tdd (1), QQ (3), 77 (3), AQ (9) = 22, Q9s (2),79 (1), 67s (2) = 27

Bluff shove: KcJx (4), KxJc (4), KJx (8) = 16

Again, start to luff w/ hands that have blockers then add a few more KJx. since the flush came in we should avoid bluffing non-blocker hands if we can. 

C/c: AxKx (12), AxJc (4), AxTc (4) = 12  = 21


~ 65% of range defended


I think this structures our range in a way that we will be continuing on each street with a an aprox correct frequency. 

C u,
X
Diana







My New Years Resolution

Hi,

I've been playing live poker professionally about a year now, but I also play a lot online, because I like it and because I want to improve my game :)

2014 I played mainly 50 NL at Pokerstars, then I took a shot at 100 NL and lost a lot, went on tilt and didn't stop when I should have.

This year I want to start over to rebuild my confidence and bankroll online. I'll be starting at 10 NL, playing 30k hands and if I achieve a win rate of minimum 3bb/100 I'll be moving up to 25 NL until I achieve the same thing there, and hopefully continue that way until I reach 200 NL.

I expect to play about "1 level" per month. If I don't reach my set goals, I'll be starting over the next month at the same level until I can move up to the next stake.

In this thread I'll be posting:
- Results
- Analysis of hands I played
- Maybe some personal rambles

Thanks for listening!
xx
D