fredag 19 december 2014

# 1 Hand Analysis

Hello,

This will be the first of my daily hand analysis.

Before I start posting hands, I'd like to say this. Sometimes I feel like people think I actually know what I'm talking about, just because I present things in a way so  that it sounds like I know what I'm talking about.

This is not the truth. However, what is the truth; generally when  I post a hand, I have thought it trough and will take all the knowledge and experience I have - theory, calculations, player, player pool etc and make the analyse through this very personal filter. It will sound like I know what I'm talking about because I made sense of the hand to the best of my ability. I have valued different strategic options and put them in a system inside. But that doesn't mean I don't value other peoples filters just as high (or probably higher, since it gives me a perspective I couldn't give myself) and therefore I welcome and embrace all input and comments you'd like to share with me.

Now, these daily analysis are mainly to keep myself disciplined about crucial studying, but if sometime in the future people find this blog, now you know - I think it would be super awesome if you scribbled down your thoughts on the hands I post in my comment field.

Also, I won't be focusing much on really sick hands, but more on the situations that occur frequently, since I think those are the most important.

Here we go, hand #1: 

PokerStars Zoom Hand #125049559656:  Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50)

Table 'Baade' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: GoldenShover ($66.41 in chips)
Seat 2: DianaSvensk ($96.81 in chips)
Seat 3: MrLawyer90 ($103.12 in chips)
Seat 4: chaosevo7 ($42.31 in chips)
Seat 5: Guldmor ($20.68 in chips)
Seat 6: Kraxen ($50 in chips)
DianaSvensk: posts small blind $0.25
MrLawyer90: posts big blind $0.50

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DianaSvensk [Th Ah]
chaosevo7: folds
Guldmor: folds
Kraxen: raises $0.75 to $1.25
GoldenShover: folds
DianaSvensk: raises $3.25 to $4.50
MrLawyer90: folds
Kraxen: calls $3.25

*** FLOP *** [7h Qc Ac]
DianaSvensk: bets $5.44
Kraxen: calls $5.44

*** TURN *** [7h Qc Ac] [6s]
DianaSvensk: checks
Kraxen: bets $10.75
DianaSvensk: calls $10.75

*** RIVER *** [7h Qc Ac 6s] [9c]
DianaSvensk: checks
Kraxen: bets $29.31 and is all-in
DianaSvensk: folds
Uncalled bet ($29.31) returned to Kraxen
Kraxen collected $40 from pot
Kraxen: doesn't show hand

*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $41.88 | Rake $1.88
Board [7h Qc Ac 6s 9c]
Seat 1: GoldenShover (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: DianaSvensk (small blind) folded on the River
Seat 3: MrLawyer90 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: chaosevo7 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Guldmor folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Kraxen collected ($40)

Analysis

[P] 

55+,33,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,AJo+,KJo+ = 18,85% = 250 combos

I am playing 3bet-or-fold from the SB vs BU and CO. This is aprox range I play vs lp open. 

[F] 

Cbet V: 77 (3), QQ (3), AQ (9), A7s (9), AK (12), AJ (12), AT (12) = 60 combos for value
Cbet bluff:
Fds: 65cc - 9T (3), J8, T8, 97 (3) = 6
Bdfd: 65cc - 9T (3), J8, T8, 97 (3) = 6, K8dd,K9dd = 2, = 8
Straightdraws: KJ (16), JTs (4), KTs (4) = 24
Pairs: 76s (3), 78s (3), TT (6), JJ (6), Q9s (3), Q8s (3),  = 24

62 combos bet as bluffs.

As you can see, I've put hands like TT-JJ and Q8s-Q9s in the bluff categories. These are not really bluffs, more like 1-street value hands that need protection. You could check/call 1 street, but I think the EV of betting is higher. These hands will also turn into pretty good bluffs on later streets when they pick up a draw and has good blocker effects. 

C/c: AA (3), K8cc-KJcc (4), KQ (12), QTs (3), QJs (3), KK (6) = 47 combos,
A2s-A6s (15), A8s-A9s (6) = 21 combos

67 combos checked and called.

[T] 

I think there are better hands from our range to choose than ATs to c/c ott. Since this is a better board for my range, I prefer to bet wide for value and bluffs and then c/decide what to do on various rivers. It keeps our range uncapped and we have more options 5th street. So I think I should have bet here with this specific hand.


Got 120 combos of hands here.

V:
77 (3), QQ (3), AQ (9), A7s (9), AK (12), AJ (12), AT (12), 67s (2)

62 combos for value

Bluffs:
Fds: 65cc - 9T (3), J8, T8, 97 (3) = 6
Straightdraws: KJ (15), JTs (4), KTs (4) = 24, 89dd, 9Tdd = 25
Pairs: 97dd (1), 78s (3), Q8-Q9s (6) = 10

42 combos bet as bluffs.

[R] 

102 combos otr.

Value shove: 65cc - 9T (3), J8, T8, 97 (3), JTcc = 7, 8Tdd (1), QQ (3), 77 (3), AQ (9) = 22, Q9s (2),79 (1), 67s (2) = 27

Bluff shove: KcJx (4), KxJc (4), KJx (8) = 16

Again, start to luff w/ hands that have blockers then add a few more KJx. since the flush came in we should avoid bluffing non-blocker hands if we can. 

C/c: AxKx (12), AxJc (4), AxTc (4) = 12  = 21


~ 65% of range defended


I think this structures our range in a way that we will be continuing on each street with a an aprox correct frequency. 

C u,
X
Diana







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