tisdag 6 januari 2015

Busted draw A9s - to bluff or not to bluff?

Today's hand!

[P] 
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,94s+,84s+,73s+,63s+,53s+,43s,A2o+,K6o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T9o,98o,87o
54,6% of hands
724

[F] 

Cbet
Value: AA (3), KK (3), QQ (6), JJ (6), 99 (6), 88 (6), 77 (6), 33 (3), 66 (3), T6s (2), T3s (2), AT (9), KT (9), QT (9), JT (9), T9 (12), T8s (2), 22 (6), 44 (6), 55 (6), 45dd (1) = 111
Ad6x (4), Adx (4), Kd6x (4) = 12

123 combos for value

Bluffs
Flushdraws:  A7-A8dd (2), K9dd-K7dd (3), K4dd-K5dd (2), K2dd (1), 52dd, 78dd, 79dd, 89dd, J2dd, J4-J5dd (2), J7dd-J9dd (3), Q2dd, Q4-Q5dd (2), Q7dd-Q9dd (3), 74dd, 75dd, 84dd, 85dd, 94dd, 95dd = 30
Backdoor flushdraws: AdQx (4), AdKx (4), AdJx (4), Ad9x, Ad8x, Ad7x, Ad5x, Ad4sx, Ad2x (24) = 36
KdJx, KdQx, Kd9x,Kd8x, Kd7x (20), QdJx, Qd9x, Qd8x,Qd7x (16)
AxQd (4), AxJd, AxKd (4), Ax9d, Ax8d, Ax7d, Ax5d,Ax4d, Ax2d (24)
= 132
AKss-AJss (3), A9ss-A7ss (3), A4-a5ss (2), A2ss (1), Kdss, KdQss, K9ss,K8ss, K7ss (5), QJss Q9ss, Q8ss,Q7ss (4) = 18
K4-K5ss (2), K2ss (1), 52ss, 78ss, 79ss, 89ss, J2ss, J4-J5ss (2), J7ss-J9ss (3), Q2ss, Q4-Q5ss (2), Q7ss-Q9ss (3), 74ss, 75ss, 84ss, 85ss, 94ss, 95ss = 30
= 48
High cards/backdoor straightdraws: KQ (10), KJ (10), QJ (10),  = 30
Straight draws: 89 (15), 78 (15), 57s (3), 47s (3), 97s (3), 45s (3) = 42

252 hands bet as bluffs

Tot 375
Cbet frequency: 52%
I think this is a decent number on this board, and we keep our check back range protected with many top pairs and better.

(Check value: AdAx (3), KdKx (3) TT (3), AdTx (3), KdTx (3), QdTx (3), JdTx (3), T7s (2), T5s (2), T4s (2), T2s (2) = 29
AKdd-ATdd (4) = 4
A2dd, A4dd, A5dd (3),A2dd, A4dd, A5dd (3), KQdd (1), KJdd (1) = 8
Remaining hands)

Now, lets look at how often we need to defend vs this raise. Vs this sizing we need to defend 45% of our range. But since this is a very draw heavy board where villains hands will have a lot of equity, we need to defend more than this. I'd try to defend at least 55% of my range.
375x0,55 = 206 combos.

Lets start with the obvious hands, top pair or better. I think I prefer to defend my hole range by calling this street, given how many draws we have and that we have the advantage of playing the rest of the streets in position:

AA (3), KK (3), QQ (6), JJ (6), 99 (6), 88 (6), 77 (6), 33 (3), 66 (3), T6s (2), T3s (2), AT (9), KT (9), QT (9), JT (9), T9 (12), T8s (2), 22 (6), 44 (6), 55 (6), 45dd (1) = 111
Ad6x (4), Adx (4), Kd6x (4) = 12
123 combos

Flush draws: A7-A8dd (2), K9dd-K7dd (3), K4dd-K5dd (2), K2dd (1), 52dd, 78dd, 79dd, 89dd, J2dd, J4-J5dd (2), J7dd-J9dd (3), Q2dd, Q4-Q5dd (2), Q7dd-Q9dd (3), 74dd, 75dd, 84dd, 85dd, 94dd, 95dd
= 30

Straight draws: 8d9 (4), 9d8x (4), 7d8x (4), 8d7x (4), 97ss (1) 45s (3) = 20

Backdoor flushdraws: AKss-AJss (3), KJss, KQss, QJss (3) AdQx (4), AdKx (4), AdJx (4),AxQd (4), AxJd, AxKd (4) A9ss, A8ss (2), KdQx (6) = 34

Tot 207 combos defended

We're basically defending all our 1 pair hands on this flop. When it comes to floats, we start with the flushdraws and after that, I prefer gutters with a diamond, and after that, the strongest backdoor fds. As you can see, A9ss is very low down our range, and some people may prefer to defend gutters before this backdoor flushdraw. I think it's close, but ok to call A9ss.

[T] 

207 combos - 3 55 = 204 combos
Vs is thissizing we need to defend 60% of our range, and since 1 more card is to come we should look at defending at least 65% of our range or 133 combos.
I think having a raising range on this turn has a lot of merit, so we'll be working with that too.

Raise value: 33 (3), 55 (3), T5s (3), T6s (2), T3s (2) = 13
Raise B: 84dd, 85dd, 94dd (3) 78dd, 79dd, 89dd, J2ddc (4) J2dd, J4dd (2),78dd, 79dd, 89dd (3) 78 (4), 79 (4) = 17

Tot 30 combos raised ott

Calls:
47dd (1), 66 (3) = 4
AA (3), KK (3), QQ (6), JJ (6) = 18
AT (9), KT (9), QT (9), JT (9), T9 (12), T8s (2) = 50
Draws:  AKss-AJss (3), KJss, KQss, QJss (3) A9ss, A8ss (2) = 8
A7-A8dd (2), K9dd-K7dd (3), K4dd-K5dd (2), K2dd (1) = 8
52dd, 45s (2), 85dd,95dd K5ddQ5dd,75dd = 7
Q2dd, Q4dd (2), Q7dd-Q9dd (3) = 5
J7dd-J9dd (3) = 3

133 combos defended, of which 103 combos where played as calls.

[R] 
It's checked to us, and we have the decision of wether to bluff or not. As you see in our range cnostruction, this hand won't improve us a lot, and since his is a spot where practically everything missed, we can't bluff aggressively. Lets start with what hands can be bet for value:

T8s (2), 66 (3), 47s (1) = 6 combos
We can now only raise ~3 combos of hands. I think this is just one of those spots where we are gonna have to give up a lot, and showdown most of our weak pairs and hope to be good a fair % of the time. When it comes to raising, I think we want to skip all diamond draws and choose a hand that blocks the top of his range, like 2 pair and maybe sets too if he has those
Bluffs:  Ad3x (4) = 4

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