onsdag 14 januari 2015

Hand: Firing 3 in 3bet pot or not

PokerStars Hand #128536929092 begins at 2015/01/12  2:04 pm
Seat 1 (luchoq10) is the dealer
DianaSvensk posts the small blind 0.10
gogonoway posts the big blind 0.25
You're Super folds
icandodge22 folds
johnygunner raises to 0.75
luchoq10 raises to 2.25
DianaSvensk raises to 5.50
gogonoway folds
johnygunner folds
luchoq10 calls 3.25
Flop: [4h 3h 4d]
DianaSvensk bets 3.78
luchoq10 calls 3.78
Turn: [Qh]
DianaSvensk bets 6.16
luchoq10 calls 6.16
River: [3d]

DianaSvensk bets 18.27

[P] 
33+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,AJo+,KQo = 19 % of hands = 252 combos

[F]
Cbet V:
AA-77 = 48 combos
A4s (2), A3s (3) = 5
AKhh, AQhh, AJhh, AThh, 56hh = 5

58

Cbet Semi bluff:
AK (15), AQ (15), AhJx (4), AxJh (4), = 38
A2hh, A5hh- A9hh (6) = 7, K8hh-KQhh (5) = 12
67hh, 89hh, T9hh, JThh, QJhh, 75hh, 68hh, 8Thh, QThh, KThh, KJhh = 11

61

A2dd, A5dd- A9dd (6) = 7, K8dd-KQdd (5) = 12
67dd, 89dd, T9dd, JTdd, QJdd, 75hh, 68dd, 8Tdd, QTdd, KTdd, KJdd = 11

56s (3), 67s (4), A5s (2), A2s (2) = 11

56

Tot 175 combos bet or 69% cbet frequency

On this flop in this situation, I prefer cbetting aggressively. After calling in co villain is capped. Maybe we should be even cbetting our hole continuing range? But normally we have a linear range from SB so maybe some c/c is good to have as well? But on this board we have the stronger/more polar range.

[T] 

Villain def has some AQ in his range, but I think those are the only Qx almost since it's a flush card, and he would 3bet a % of those pf so we have to discount it. Villain has some flushes in his range but not a huge amount, and since the turn is the Qh it blocks many of the more likely flushes. Therefor I think we can continue to bet for value and bluff aggressively. Having flush blockers is still relevant but not that relevant, since villains flushes are discounted. Villain probably have to call down with 88-99 a % of the time to stay indefferent. Explo wise I don't think villain will do that very often, which makes bluffing this runout pretty good with a high %.

175 - 3 QQ,1 AQhh - QJhh - QThh, KQhh = 169 combos OTT.

Cbet V:
AA-99 = 36 combos, 7h7x-8h8x (6) QKdd, QJdd, QTdd, Q9dd, Q8dd = 5 = 47
A4s (2), AQ (12) = 14
AKhh,  AJhh, AThh, 56hh = 4
67hh, 89hh, T9hh, JThh, 75hh, 68hh, 8Thh, KThh, KJhh = 9
A2hh, A5hh- A9hh (6) = 7, K8hh-K9hh = 9

= 63 combos v bet

Cbet Semi bluff:
AK (15), AhJx (4), AxJh (4), = 21
56s (3), 67s (3), 57s (3) A5s (3), A2s (3) = 15

Tot 36 combos

Tot 100 combos cbet ott, frequency: 60%

C/f v: A3s (3)
C/c: 77-88 w/o heart? Should we even havve a check/calling range here when it is so capped? Maybe add some broday flusshes as well? Or just give up these combos completely? Normally the Qx is good for bu but given pre flop action maybe we should just keep betting here our hole range again. I think in this instance we should keep betting our hole range, but in normal situation we should probably have a c/c range on each street and especially Qx turn.

[R] 
I think we can shove any Qx or better for value, so that gives:

Value shove:
AA-KK (12), QQ (3), QKdd, QJdd, QTdd, Q9dd, Q8dd (5) = 20
A4s (2), AQ (12) = 14
AKhh,  AJhh, AThh, 56hh = 4
67hh, 89hh, T9hh, JThh, 75hh, 68hh, 8Thh, KThh, KJhh = 9
A2hh, A5hh- A9hh (6) = 7, K8hh-K9hh = 9

Tot 56 combos

Bluff shove:
56s (3), 67s (3), 57s (3) = 9
AhKx (4), AxKh (4), AhJx (4), AxJh (4) = 12

Tot 21 combos bluffed.

A5s (3), A2s (3)???

Since blockers are not as important in this spot, I think I want too start with bluffing combos that have no chance to win at showdown. If we are bluffing all our turn bluffs then we are pretty explo at this river, so I don't think we should do that. Question is wether the AhX makes better bluffs than the hand that I used. I think probably the Ahx is better, it has a bit of blocker effect to the few flushes he has + the few AQ he can have.

We should have aprox 1 bluff for every 3 value combo with this sizing. But as said, explo I think we can bluff more aggressively here since villains top of range will be 99 a lot here. Therefor I don't think it's a terrible bluff in practice but I should look at keeping my frequencies in check.



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