torsdag 8 januari 2015

Hand: river strategy with AA

[P] 
Vs 3x bu open we3bet more aggressively. Our range look something like this:
99+,A2s+,K7s+,Q8s-Q9s,J7s-J9s,T7s-T8s,97s,86s,75s,64s,ATo+,KJo+
16,89%
= 224 combos

[F] 
Check/call: KK w K s and AA w As (6), JJ (3), AKss, AQss, ATss (3), AsJx (4), AK (7), AQ (7)
(XR and barell som lower fd inc QK)
= tot 30 combos

[T] 
Vs this sizing, we need to defend 66% + of our range. 30x0,70 = 21 combos.
Calls: KK (3), AA (3), AKss, AQss, ATss (3), JJ (3), AK (3) = 15

Raise Value: 4 AK
Raise Bluff: 4 AsJx
8

This turn is actually pretty good for us, and we have very few hands in our range now. I like to both raise and call this turn. We can actually fold all our AQ hands here.

[R] 
To this sizing, we should defend 65% of our range or 14 combos.

Calls: KK (3), JJ (3), AA (1) = 7
Raise Value: AK (4) = 4
Raise Bluff: AA (2) = 2

AA is the cut off hand here, and even though I think it's - ev to call this in game, it is a really good hand to use as bluff since it blocks AK (since we're deeper we assume villain can still have AK in this hand).

Result: we should XR this hand all in on the river.

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