söndag 4 januari 2015

HA: QQ - Call or fold river?

PokerStars Hand #128028477339 begins at 2015/01/04  5:51 am
Seat 1 (DianaSvensk) is the dealer
digiovinazzo posts the small blind 0.05
konsalting posts the big blind 0.10
Phytte folds
ICallYouAA raises to 0.25
Rolfozaur folds
DianaSvensk calls 0.25
digiovinazzo folds
konsalting folds
Flop: [Js Jc 6h]
ICallYouAA bets 0.40
DianaSvensk calls 0.40
Turn: [3d]
ICallYouAA bets 1.00
DianaSvensk calls 1.00
River: [9s]
ICallYouAA bets 2.00[P]

66+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,AQo+
126 combos

[F]
To this size, we need to defend 61%+ of our range. That's minimum 77 combos. Since I never raise this flop/board, we should be defending more than this.

We always call:
AJs (2), KJs (2), QJs (2), JTs (2), JJ (1), 66 (3) = 12 combos
QQ-77 = 36 combos
AK (16), AQ (16) = 32
bdfd: ATs (3), KQs (3), KTs (3) = 9

89 combos defended.

[T]
ott, we should be defending 59% + (45 combos) of our range. Again, we will never raise here so we need to defend a bit more than that.

Calls:
AJs (2), KJs (2), QJs (2), JTs (2), JJ (1), 66 (3) = 12 combos
QQ-77 = 36 combos
AKs (4) = 4

Tot combos defended: 52

[R]
45-3 combos = 42 combos. Here, we need to defend about 63 % of our range, or 26 combos.

Calls: KJs (2), QJs (2), JTs (2) = 6
QQ (6), TT (1) = 7
Raising V: 66 (3), 99 (3), AJ (2), JJ (1)  = 9 combos
Raising B: AKs (4) = 4

26 combos defended.

As you can see, folding QQ here is very exploitable, and even though I can't see that many bluffs in villains range, he will occassionally have TT or AK here so I think we call. Folding exploitaviley I don't think is terrible at this stake. A big part of his range with this size will be AA-KK.

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