Hand: River XR bluff

PokerStars Hand #128211459984 begins at 2015/01/07  6:53 am
Seat 1 (bleubillz) is the dealer
MiNiShAll posts the small blind 0.05
DianaSvensk posts the big blind 0.10
danagaille folds
kNoqn1 folds
VINT_int raises to 0.25
bleubillz folds
MiNiShAll calls 0.20
DianaSvensk calls 0.15
Flop: [7c 7d 2d]
MiNiShAll checks
DianaSvensk checks
VINT_int bets 0.53
MiNiShAll folds
DianaSvensk calls 0.53
Turn: [2s]
DianaSvensk checks
VINT_int bets 1.28
DianaSvensk calls 1.28
River: [9h]
DianaSvensk checks
VINT_int bets 3.08
DianaSvensk raises to 18.32
VINT_int folds
15.24 returned to DianaSvensk

[P] 
33-99,A2s-AJs,K2s-KJs,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,A5o-AJo,KTo+,QTo+,T9o,98o
24% = 318 combos

[F] 
(We're pretending we're hu now), on this board we won't be raising any parts of our range until the river.
To this size we should defend 59% + of our range, letss start with min 65% or 207 combos.

Strong: 77 (1), 22 (2), A7s (2), K7s (2), 87s (2), A7o (6) = 15
Pairs: 33-66 (18), 88-99 (12), A2s (3), K2s (3) = 36
Fds: Suited A (8) Suited K (8), Q9dd, QTdd, QJdd, J9dd, T9dd, 89dd, 87dd (7) = 23
Backdoor fds: Suited A (8) Suited K (8), Q9cc, QTcc, QJcc, J9dcc, T9cc, 89cc, 87cc (7) = 23
KdQo, KdJo, KdTo (12) = 12
A high: A5o-AJo = 112

Tot 221 combos defended

[T] 
Again ott, we have to defend 59% of our raange +, we have 221 - 1 A2s, - 2 K2s - 2 22 = 216 combos X 0,65 = 140 combos.

Strong: 77 (1), 22 (1), A7s (2), K7s (2), 87s (2), A7 (6) = 14
Pairs: 33-66 (18), 88-99 (12), A2s (2), K2s (2) = 34
Fds: Suited A (8) Suited K (8), Q9dd, QTdd, QJdd, J9dd, T9dd, 89dd, 87dd (7) = 23
A8o-AJo = 64
A6s = 4

Tot 139 combos defended

[R] 
We have 140 combos - 3 99 = 137 combos. To defend 59%, we need to defend at least 137x0,59 = 79 combos.

Raise value: 77 (1), 22 (1), A7s (2), K7s (2), 87s (2), A7 (6), 99 = 17
Raise bluff: AJs (4), ATs (4) = 8
Calls:
J9dd, T9dd, 89dd,Q9dd,K9dd, A9dd = 6
88 = 6
A2s, K2s = 4

41 COMBOS DEFENDED.

As you can see above, we should probably use all our pairs as calls on this river, but exploitavey, I just don't think this runout is bluffed often enough to make a call with 55 or 6 profitable. In the light of that, I think my river shove is ok, but I think it's better if we use Ax, that blocks A7 and A2 and AA. I think this is a situation on the river where we can fold exploitative, yet stay aware that we can be exploited.