Hand: River XR bluff

PokerStars Hand #128211459984 begins at 2015/01/07  6:53 am
Seat 1 (bleubillz) is the dealer
MiNiShAll posts the small blind 0.05
DianaSvensk posts the big blind 0.10
danagaille folds
kNoqn1 folds
VINT_int raises to 0.25
bleubillz folds
MiNiShAll calls 0.20
DianaSvensk calls 0.15
Flop: [7c 7d 2d]
MiNiShAll checks
DianaSvensk checks
VINT_int bets 0.53
MiNiShAll folds
DianaSvensk calls 0.53
Turn: [2s]
DianaSvensk checks
VINT_int bets 1.28
DianaSvensk calls 1.28
River: [9h]
DianaSvensk checks
VINT_int bets 3.08
DianaSvensk raises to 18.32
VINT_int folds
15.24 returned to DianaSvensk

[P] 
33-99,A2s-AJs,K2s-KJs,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,A5o-AJo,KTo+,QTo+,T9o,98o
24% = 318 combos

[F] 
(We're pretending we're hu now), on this board we won't be raising any parts of our range until the river.
To this size we should defend 59% + of our range, letss start with min 65% or 207 combos.

Strong: 77 (1), 22 (2), A7s (2), K7s (2), 87s (2), A7o (6) = 15
Pairs: 33-66 (18), 88-99 (12), A2s (3), K2s (3) = 36
Fds: Suited A (8) Suited K (8), Q9dd, QTdd, QJdd, J9dd, T9dd, 89dd, 87dd (7) = 23
Backdoor fds: Suited A (8) Suited K (8), Q9cc, QTcc, QJcc, J9dcc, T9cc, 89cc, 87cc (7) = 23
KdQo, KdJo, KdTo (12) = 12
A high: A5o-AJo = 112

Tot 221 combos defended

[T] 
Again ott, we have to defend 59% of our raange +, we have 221 - 1 A2s, - 2 K2s - 2 22 = 216 combos X 0,65 = 140 combos.

Strong: 77 (1), 22 (1), A7s (2), K7s (2), 87s (2), A7 (6) = 14
Pairs: 33-66 (18), 88-99 (12), A2s (2), K2s (2) = 34
Fds: Suited A (8) Suited K (8), Q9dd, QTdd, QJdd, J9dd, T9dd, 89dd, 87dd (7) = 23
A8o-AJo = 64
A6s = 4

Tot 139 combos defended

[R] 
We have 140 combos - 3 99 = 137 combos. To defend 59%, we need to defend at least 137x0,59 = 79 combos.

Raise value: 77 (1), 22 (1), A7s (2), K7s (2), 87s (2), A7 (6), 99 = 17
Raise bluff: AJs (4), ATs (4) = 8
Calls:
J9dd, T9dd, 89dd,Q9dd,K9dd, A9dd = 6
88 = 6
A2s, K2s = 4

41 COMBOS DEFENDED.

As you can see above, we should probably use all our pairs as calls on this river, but exploitavey, I just don't think this runout is bluffed often enough to make a call with 55 or 6 profitable. In the light of that, I think my river shove is ok, but I think it's better if we use Ax, that blocks A7 and A2 and AA. I think this is a situation on the river where we can fold exploitative, yet stay aware that we can be exploited.

Busted draw A9s - to bluff or not to bluff?

Today's hand!

[P] 
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,94s+,84s+,73s+,63s+,53s+,43s,A2o+,K6o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T9o,98o,87o
54,6% of hands
724

[F] 

Cbet
Value: AA (3), KK (3), QQ (6), JJ (6), 99 (6), 88 (6), 77 (6), 33 (3), 66 (3), T6s (2), T3s (2), AT (9), KT (9), QT (9), JT (9), T9 (12), T8s (2), 22 (6), 44 (6), 55 (6), 45dd (1) = 111
Ad6x (4), Adx (4), Kd6x (4) = 12

123 combos for value

Bluffs
Flushdraws:  A7-A8dd (2), K9dd-K7dd (3), K4dd-K5dd (2), K2dd (1), 52dd, 78dd, 79dd, 89dd, J2dd, J4-J5dd (2), J7dd-J9dd (3), Q2dd, Q4-Q5dd (2), Q7dd-Q9dd (3), 74dd, 75dd, 84dd, 85dd, 94dd, 95dd = 30
Backdoor flushdraws: AdQx (4), AdKx (4), AdJx (4), Ad9x, Ad8x, Ad7x, Ad5x, Ad4sx, Ad2x (24) = 36
KdJx, KdQx, Kd9x,Kd8x, Kd7x (20), QdJx, Qd9x, Qd8x,Qd7x (16)
AxQd (4), AxJd, AxKd (4), Ax9d, Ax8d, Ax7d, Ax5d,Ax4d, Ax2d (24)
= 132
AKss-AJss (3), A9ss-A7ss (3), A4-a5ss (2), A2ss (1), Kdss, KdQss, K9ss,K8ss, K7ss (5), QJss Q9ss, Q8ss,Q7ss (4) = 18
K4-K5ss (2), K2ss (1), 52ss, 78ss, 79ss, 89ss, J2ss, J4-J5ss (2), J7ss-J9ss (3), Q2ss, Q4-Q5ss (2), Q7ss-Q9ss (3), 74ss, 75ss, 84ss, 85ss, 94ss, 95ss = 30
= 48
High cards/backdoor straightdraws: KQ (10), KJ (10), QJ (10),  = 30
Straight draws: 89 (15), 78 (15), 57s (3), 47s (3), 97s (3), 45s (3) = 42

252 hands bet as bluffs

Tot 375
Cbet frequency: 52%
I think this is a decent number on this board, and we keep our check back range protected with many top pairs and better.

(Check value: AdAx (3), KdKx (3) TT (3), AdTx (3), KdTx (3), QdTx (3), JdTx (3), T7s (2), T5s (2), T4s (2), T2s (2) = 29
AKdd-ATdd (4) = 4
A2dd, A4dd, A5dd (3),A2dd, A4dd, A5dd (3), KQdd (1), KJdd (1) = 8
Remaining hands)

Now, lets look at how often we need to defend vs this raise. Vs this sizing we need to defend 45% of our range. But since this is a very draw heavy board where villains hands will have a lot of equity, we need to defend more than this. I'd try to defend at least 55% of my range.
375x0,55 = 206 combos.

Lets start with the obvious hands, top pair or better. I think I prefer to defend my hole range by calling this street, given how many draws we have and that we have the advantage of playing the rest of the streets in position:

AA (3), KK (3), QQ (6), JJ (6), 99 (6), 88 (6), 77 (6), 33 (3), 66 (3), T6s (2), T3s (2), AT (9), KT (9), QT (9), JT (9), T9 (12), T8s (2), 22 (6), 44 (6), 55 (6), 45dd (1) = 111
Ad6x (4), Adx (4), Kd6x (4) = 12
123 combos

Flush draws: A7-A8dd (2), K9dd-K7dd (3), K4dd-K5dd (2), K2dd (1), 52dd, 78dd, 79dd, 89dd, J2dd, J4-J5dd (2), J7dd-J9dd (3), Q2dd, Q4-Q5dd (2), Q7dd-Q9dd (3), 74dd, 75dd, 84dd, 85dd, 94dd, 95dd
= 30

Straight draws: 8d9 (4), 9d8x (4), 7d8x (4), 8d7x (4), 97ss (1) 45s (3) = 20

Backdoor flushdraws: AKss-AJss (3), KJss, KQss, QJss (3) AdQx (4), AdKx (4), AdJx (4),AxQd (4), AxJd, AxKd (4) A9ss, A8ss (2), KdQx (6) = 34

Tot 207 combos defended

We're basically defending all our 1 pair hands on this flop. When it comes to floats, we start with the flushdraws and after that, I prefer gutters with a diamond, and after that, the strongest backdoor fds. As you can see, A9ss is very low down our range, and some people may prefer to defend gutters before this backdoor flushdraw. I think it's close, but ok to call A9ss.

[T] 

207 combos - 3 55 = 204 combos
Vs is thissizing we need to defend 60% of our range, and since 1 more card is to come we should look at defending at least 65% of our range or 133 combos.
I think having a raising range on this turn has a lot of merit, so we'll be working with that too.

Raise value: 33 (3), 55 (3), T5s (3), T6s (2), T3s (2) = 13
Raise B: 84dd, 85dd, 94dd (3) 78dd, 79dd, 89dd, J2ddc (4) J2dd, J4dd (2),78dd, 79dd, 89dd (3) 78 (4), 79 (4) = 17

Tot 30 combos raised ott

Calls:
47dd (1), 66 (3) = 4
AA (3), KK (3), QQ (6), JJ (6) = 18
AT (9), KT (9), QT (9), JT (9), T9 (12), T8s (2) = 50
Draws:  AKss-AJss (3), KJss, KQss, QJss (3) A9ss, A8ss (2) = 8
A7-A8dd (2), K9dd-K7dd (3), K4dd-K5dd (2), K2dd (1) = 8
52dd, 45s (2), 85dd,95dd K5ddQ5dd,75dd = 7
Q2dd, Q4dd (2), Q7dd-Q9dd (3) = 5
J7dd-J9dd (3) = 3

133 combos defended, of which 103 combos where played as calls.

[R] 
It's checked to us, and we have the decision of wether to bluff or not. As you see in our range cnostruction, this hand won't improve us a lot, and since his is a spot where practically everything missed, we can't bluff aggressively. Lets start with what hands can be bet for value:

T8s (2), 66 (3), 47s (1) = 6 combos
We can now only raise ~3 combos of hands. I think this is just one of those spots where we are gonna have to give up a lot, and showdown most of our weak pairs and hope to be good a fair % of the time. When it comes to raising, I think we want to skip all diamond draws and choose a hand that blocks the top of his range, like 2 pair and maybe sets too if he has those
Bluffs:  Ad3x (4) = 4

HA: QQ - Call or fold river?

PokerStars Hand #128028477339 begins at 2015/01/04  5:51 am
Seat 1 (DianaSvensk) is the dealer
digiovinazzo posts the small blind 0.05
konsalting posts the big blind 0.10
Phytte folds
ICallYouAA raises to 0.25
Rolfozaur folds
DianaSvensk calls 0.25
digiovinazzo folds
konsalting folds
Flop: [Js Jc 6h]
ICallYouAA bets 0.40
DianaSvensk calls 0.40
Turn: [3d]
ICallYouAA bets 1.00
DianaSvensk calls 1.00
River: [9s]
ICallYouAA bets 2.00[P]

66+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,AQo+
126 combos

[F]
To this size, we need to defend 61%+ of our range. That's minimum 77 combos. Since I never raise this flop/board, we should be defending more than this.

We always call:
AJs (2), KJs (2), QJs (2), JTs (2), JJ (1), 66 (3) = 12 combos
QQ-77 = 36 combos
AK (16), AQ (16) = 32
bdfd: ATs (3), KQs (3), KTs (3) = 9

89 combos defended.

[T]
ott, we should be defending 59% + (45 combos) of our range. Again, we will never raise here so we need to defend a bit more than that.

Calls:
AJs (2), KJs (2), QJs (2), JTs (2), JJ (1), 66 (3) = 12 combos
QQ-77 = 36 combos
AKs (4) = 4

Tot combos defended: 52

[R]
45-3 combos = 42 combos. Here, we need to defend about 63 % of our range, or 26 combos.

Calls: KJs (2), QJs (2), JTs (2) = 6
QQ (6), TT (1) = 7
Raising V: 66 (3), 99 (3), AJ (2), JJ (1)  = 9 combos
Raising B: AKs (4) = 4

26 combos defended.

As you can see, folding QQ here is very exploitable, and even though I can't see that many bluffs in villains range, he will occassionally have TT or AK here so I think we call. Folding exploitaviley I don't think is terrible at this stake. A big part of his range with this size will be AA-KK.

Results 1st 12k hands

Hey, thought I'd keep you posted how my results come as we go, I've now played the first 12k hands/60k hands and this is how I'm doing so far:

Hopefully we can keep this up throughout all our levvels :)

Talk soon,
D

AQ hand 10 NL Part 2 River Decision

Hi, 

This is a continuation of the hand I posted yesterday. I thought some more about it, and I since we have a big range advantage (a lot of sets that he doesn't have, all combos of AQ that he probably doesn't, since he'll be 3betting a % of those pf and likely fold or raise a decent % of those on the turn), I think I prefer merging more of the range, still keeping some c/c and c/r, but betting closer to a pot size bet that we can use here fr all our 2 pair +. If we where more polarized between just having a few very strong hands otr, an overbet would be better, but since we have a wide range of hands from medium strong to very strong, I think betting pot on the river with all of those has higher ev, though it's close. Given the call that we got though from 2 pair, it's likely that overbetting all AQ and betting pot with most of the other part of the range for value exploitatively  has a higher ev than merging the stronng hands. 

/Diana

Hand analysis 10 NL

Hey guys! 

Just finished my first week at 10 NL and got a flying start winning about 10bb/100 hands over a 10k sample. The old me would already be laddering the stakes, but keeping my New Years Resolution I won't be moving up until finishing 60k hands at each stake with at least +3bb/100.

Will keep you posted!

Hand

PokerStars Hand #127801122548 begins at 2014/12/31  4:28 am

Seat 1 (Tyke63) is the dealer

Virus666777 posts the small blind 0.05

ciuchcik posts the big blind 0.10

MinerBoy23 folds

pityumeszi folds

DianaSvensk raises to 0.24

Tyke63 calls 0.24

Virus666777 folds

ciuchcik folds

Flop: [Ts 7h 2c]

DianaSvensk bets 0.43

Tyke63 calls 0.43

Turn: [Kd]

DianaSvensk bets 1.02

Tyke63 calls 1.02

River: [Jc]

DianaSvensk bets 8.31

Tyke63 calls 8.31

Action has ended[P] 

[P] 

22+,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J7s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

28% of hands 

371 hands

[F] 

CBET: 

Value: 77 (6), 22 (6), JJ-KK (18), 88-99 (12), QT (12), JT (12), T9 (12), T8s (3) = 86

Backdoor straight/high cards: AQ (16), QK (16), AJ (16), KJ (16),  = 64

Straight draws: 89s (4), 9Js (4), 68s (4) = 12

Backdoor fd: AKs (3), A3s-A6s (12), A8s, A9s-AJs (12) = 27, , K9s,  Q9s, 54s, 56s (18) = 39

1 pair: A2s (3), 33-66 (18) = 21

136 combos bet as bluffs (37%)

Tot cbet frequency: 59%. Seam fine to cbet more aggressively on dry boards OOP..

C/c: AK (13), TT (3), AT (12),KT (12) AA (6), 78s (3), 79s (3), 76s (3), 75s (3) = 58

[T] 

222 combos - 4 QK, - 4 KJ - 3 KK= 211 combos.

VB:  77 (6), 22 (6), JJ-KK (18),  QT (12), JT (12),  KJ (12), KQ (12) K9s (3) = 81

Bluffs: 

Backdoor straight/high cards: AQ (16) AJ (16) = 32

Straight draws: 89s (4), 9Js (4), 68s (4), Q9s = 16

1 pair: A2s (3), 88-99 (12) = 15 T9 (12), T8s (3) = 30

80 combos

I'm not sure how to balance a c/c range on this turn. This is definetily a leak in my game - I double barell too much. I think it's a profitable thing to do at the micro stakes, but I do want to have balanced ranges. But maybe since this turn will add both a lot of draws and a lot of Kx to my hands and better, so it's ok to continue betting aggressively. As the rage is constructed here, I decided to keep only KK and AK as c/c, since they don't block many straight draws. 

The upside with betting is that we keep our range uncapped and it gives us omre options on the river - ie the hand gets easier to player. But I believe it's a spot we should look out for, so we don't create too many exploitable tendencies. 

C/c: KK (3), AKs (3)

Cbet turn frequency: 76%

[R] 

We're at the interesting point in the hand. Should we be splitting our range here or not?

211 - 3 JJ, -4 KJ - 4 JT = 200 combos

Vbet 2,5x pot: AQ (10) = 10

Bluffs 2,5x pot: QTs (3), QTo (4) = 7

For hands as bluffs, I want to use hands that block mainly AQ. QT also blocks some 2 pair combos so seam like a good candidate. Since I'm not b;uffing all the combos, it can be hard to randomize the QTo combos to not overbluff, so I start with the QTs combos first, always bluffing those. 

Vbet 60% pot: KJ (8), JJ (3), 77 (3), 22 (3), JT (8), QK (8), AQ (2), Q9s, K9s (3) = 42

Bluffs 60% pot: 89s (4), 68s (4), A2s (3), T8s (3), T9s (3) = 17

A lot of hands we plan to c/f will probably win 10-15% of the time when villain bets behind. 

We are cbetting the river 38% of the time, I'd like this frequency to be higer given how often we barell the turn, but I think this is an effect of betting a merged range now on the turn. I will continue to look closely at these type of spots and work to smooth out the edges. 

XRAI V: AQ (4)

BLUFF: QT (2)

C/C: AJ (8), QQ (6) = 14

20 combos defended vs bets (16 % of checking range)

Summary: I don't think the above range construction is perfect and probably shows a leak in my game, but this is something I'll  be aware on and keep working on - 1) defending my checks on each street 2) smooth my edges on betting frequencies on most boards

Hello

Hi guys!

Hope you are well. I've been in the bush for a week with no internet, then meeting up with my folks in Sweden in a few hectic days. I have however analysed several hands I'll be posting this week.

Here are some pics for now:

                                 

Hugs,

D