lördag 3 januari 2015

Hand analysis 10 NL

Hey guys! 

Just finished my first week at 10 NL and got a flying start winning about 10bb/100 hands over a 10k sample. The old me would already be laddering the stakes, but keeping my New Years Resolution I won't be moving up until finishing 60k hands at each stake with at least +3bb/100.
Will keep you posted!

Hand
PokerStars Hand #127801122548 begins at 2014/12/31  4:28 am
Seat 1 (Tyke63) is the dealer
Virus666777 posts the small blind 0.05
ciuchcik posts the big blind 0.10
MinerBoy23 folds
pityumeszi folds
DianaSvensk raises to 0.24
Tyke63 calls 0.24
Virus666777 folds
ciuchcik folds
Flop: [Ts 7h 2c]
DianaSvensk bets 0.43
Tyke63 calls 0.43
Turn: [Kd]
DianaSvensk bets 1.02
Tyke63 calls 1.02
River: [Jc]
DianaSvensk bets 8.31
Tyke63 calls 8.31
Action has ended[P] 


[P] 
22+,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J7s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
28% of hands 
371 hands

[F] 
CBET: 
Value: 77 (6), 22 (6), JJ-KK (18), 88-99 (12), QT (12), JT (12), T9 (12), T8s (3) = 86

Backdoor straight/high cards: AQ (16), QK (16), AJ (16), KJ (16),  = 64
Straight draws: 89s (4), 9Js (4), 68s (4) = 12
Backdoor fd: AKs (3), A3s-A6s (12), A8s, A9s-AJs (12) = 27, , K9s,  Q9s, 54s, 56s (18) = 39
1 pair: A2s (3), 33-66 (18) = 21

136 combos bet as bluffs (37%)

Tot cbet frequency: 59%. Seam fine to cbet more aggressively on dry boards OOP..

C/c: AK (13), TT (3), AT (12),KT (12) AA (6), 78s (3), 79s (3), 76s (3), 75s (3) = 58

[T] 
222 combos - 4 QK, - 4 KJ - 3 KK= 211 combos.

VB:  77 (6), 22 (6), JJ-KK (18),  QT (12), JT (12),  KJ (12), KQ (12) K9s (3) = 81

Bluffs: 
Backdoor straight/high cards: AQ (16) AJ (16) = 32
Straight draws: 89s (4), 9Js (4), 68s (4), Q9s = 16
1 pair: A2s (3), 88-99 (12) = 15 T9 (12), T8s (3) = 30

80 combos

I'm not sure how to balance a c/c range on this turn. This is definetily a leak in my game - I double barell too much. I think it's a profitable thing to do at the micro stakes, but I do want to have balanced ranges. But maybe since this turn will add both a lot of draws and a lot of Kx to my hands and better, so it's ok to continue betting aggressively. As the rage is constructed here, I decided to keep only KK and AK as c/c, since they don't block many straight draws. 

The upside with betting is that we keep our range uncapped and it gives us omre options on the river - ie the hand gets easier to player. But I believe it's a spot we should look out for, so we don't create too many exploitable tendencies. 

C/c: KK (3), AKs (3)

Cbet turn frequency: 76%

[R] 

We're at the interesting point in the hand. Should we be splitting our range here or not?

211 - 3 JJ, -4 KJ - 4 JT = 200 combos

Vbet 2,5x pot: AQ (10) = 10
Bluffs 2,5x pot: QTs (3), QTo (4) = 7

For hands as bluffs, I want to use hands that block mainly AQ. QT also blocks some 2 pair combos so seam like a good candidate. Since I'm not b;uffing all the combos, it can be hard to randomize the QTo combos to not overbluff, so I start with the QTs combos first, always bluffing those. 

Vbet 60% pot: KJ (8), JJ (3), 77 (3), 22 (3), JT (8), QK (8), AQ (2), Q9s, K9s (3) = 42
Bluffs 60% pot: 89s (4), 68s (4), A2s (3), T8s (3), T9s (3) = 17

A lot of hands we plan to c/f will probably win 10-15% of the time when villain bets behind. 

We are cbetting the river 38% of the time, I'd like this frequency to be higer given how often we barell the turn, but I think this is an effect of betting a merged range now on the turn. I will continue to look closely at these type of spots and work to smooth out the edges. 

XRAI V: AQ (4)
BLUFF: QT (2)

C/C: AJ (8), QQ (6) = 14

20 combos defended vs bets (16 % of checking range)

Summary: I don't think the above range construction is perfect and probably shows a leak in my game, but this is something I'll  be aware on and keep working on - 1) defending my checks on each street 2) smooth my edges on betting frequencies on most boards

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